Column definitions
Hover any column header for its definition. Every FBS team and every ranking system in one table — tap a column header to rank by it, tap again to flip top ↔ bottom. Sorting by AP or CFP puts that system's top 25 up top, with the rest of the country still below. Search by team, abbreviation or conference.
- MSR — my rating: power index + record-weighted résumé. #1 = best.
- CFP / AP / COA — the committee, media and coaches polls.
- PWR / BCS — ESPN's Power Index, and the old BCS formula.
- SoS — strength of schedule. #1 = toughest slate played.
- SOR — strength of record: how impressive the record is given that schedule. 100 = a résumé a Top-25 team would rarely match. Shown, not used to rank.
- PPG / PA — points scored and allowed per game.
- Succ% — success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule. The most predictive single stat in my model — ahead of yards, ahead of points. Lower is better on defense.
- Expl — explosiveness: how much the successful plays gain. Succ% is how often; Expl is how far.
- Havoc — share of plays a defense wrecks: TFLs, forced fumbles, picks, passes defended.
- Rec / Conf — overall record, and conference games only.
Each team's chance to reach the 12-team playoff, re-simulated (Monte Carlo) at every point of the year — step through the weeks to watch the odds move. Preseason carries real uncertainty — a projected #1 is a favorite, never a lock; as games are played, contenders climb toward 100% and also-rans fall to 0%. Click a team for its profile.
- Playoff — % of simulated seasons reaching the 12-team field (Δ = change since the last snapshot).
- Title — % winning the national title (Playoff tab).
- Conf — % winning the conference; 🏆 = crowned champion once the title game is played.
- Proj W — projected wins; each team shows Overall (Conference) record.
- G5 note — a Group-of-5 team essentially must go undefeated (or one loss) and be the best G5 champ to take the auto-bid, so their preseason odds sit low (~15-25%).
Player leaders are national season totals.
- PPA — Predicted Points Added, the model's per-play efficiency (offense & defense, shown as a rank, #1 = best).
- Havoc — rate of plays with a tackle-for-loss, forced fumble, or pass defended.
MSR Grade — my own 0–100 efficiency-first grade (not PFF), scored within each position group: per-play quality leads (yards per attempt/carry/catch, TD rate, completion & FG %, impact plays like sacks/TFL/INTs), with total volume only as a tiebreaker — so a compiler on a bad team doesn't out-rank an efficient star. Minimum-workload cutoffs apply, and grades curve within position so the high-90s are reserved for elite, historically great seasons. Click any player for their full season line.
- Hot Seat — a fire-risk score (higher = hotter) from win rate, tenure, and buyout cost; first-year coaches get a grace pass.
- $ out — the coach's buyout (cost to fire).
- Coaching Changes — every head-coach change this season, updated as they happen.
Graded on every FBS game the model projected, week by week. Green = beating the benchmark. Each card shows two splits: the headline covers any game involving an FBS team, and the footer covers FBS vs FBS only.
- SU — straight-up: picked the correct winner.
- Spread Error — average points between the projected spread and the real margin. Lower is better; the Vegas closing line grades about 11.8, and no public model beats it.
- ATS — against the spread vs the Vegas line (52.4% = break-even).
- O/U — over/under the total.
- Why two splits? Games against FCS opponents are near-automatic wins and lift the straight-up number by about three points. Public model comparisons are graded FBS vs FBS, so both are shown rather than only the flattering one.