The CFP committee's final Top 25, compared across every major system. MSR — my Miles Shoaf Rating (résumé-solved). PWR — ESPN's Power Index (FPI). RES — my résumé composite (MCR). AP / Coa — the media & coaches polls. BCS — the old BCS-style formula. Tap any column header to re-sort; click a team for its profile.
Full MSR ranking for every FBS team this season (count varies by year). Same columns as the Top 25 — MSR rank, record, rating strength, SoS rank, quality-win credits. Search by team or conference.
Odds from 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the season. Make Playoff — chance of reaching the 12-team field. National Title — chance of winning it all. Conference Favorites — each league's most likely champ. Proj Wins — average simulated win total.
PPA — Predicted Points Added, the model's per-play efficiency (offense & defense, shown as a rank, #1 = best). Havoc — rate of plays with a tackle-for-loss, forced fumble, or pass defended. Player leaders are national season totals.
Hot Seat — a fire-risk score (higher = hotter) from win rate, tenure, and buyout cost; first-year coaches get a grace pass. $ out — the coach's buyout (cost to fire). Coaching Changes — every head-coach change this season, updated as they happen.
SU — straight-up: picked the correct winner. ATS — against the spread vs the Vegas line (52.4% = break-even). O/U — over/under the total. Graded on every FBS game the model projected, week by week. Green = beating the betting break-even.